More politics

So, the Dems went 2 for 2 in this year's special elections this week. Good for them. The close margin was, truth be told, a bit disappointing for me, and I'm not persuaded that it's a harbinger of anything in particular. But hey, good news is good news.

I honestly think the Dems are overdoing the "victory in strong Republican territory" thing a bit. True, South Dakota is among the eleven states that haven't gone Democratic for president since the end-of-an-era landslide of 1964, which is as good a definition of "red state" as any. But it is more or less unique among the Red Eleven (*) in that it has had several close presidential votes since then and has elected a lot of Democrats to Congress in recent years. Clinton came pretty close there at least once, even though the Dems didn't spend much on his behalf there (which wouldn't have been cost-effective or necessary), and the House seat in question was in Democratic hands from 1982-96. But Bush did carry SD 60-38, so I guess a win there is worth crowing about a bit. If nothing else, it's fun to watch the Republicans try to spin this one after all the chortling they did over a few special elections they won in the mid-90s in former Democratic districts.

And wins like this are usually a sign of things to come, especially when there is more than one election in an off-season as was the case here. (The other was in Kentucky in February.) Like it or not, those aforementioned GOP wins in the spring and summer of 1994 weren't outliers. In the lead-up to the Watergate election of 1974, the Dems won five special elections out of (I think) a total of six. So, if nothing else, it's not a bad sign for us. I just hope it doesn't make anybody complacent.





(*) The other ten, by the way, are Alaska, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Utah, Virginia, and Wyoming. I don't see John Kerry making that list any shorter this fall, but he does have an outside chance at Virginia and - if the wind is really at his back - Indiana.
posted by Dave : 11:55 PM