Some good news from home

Some things didn't change when I came to Taiwan. Like my voracious appetite for poll numbers. The latest ones from Zogby are certainly welcome news. Despite the completely flaccid media and their characteristically feeble response to the horrors in Iraq (not to be confused with the up-to-the-minute reports on a certain blue dress several years ago) and the fact that the Dems are still only just starting to get their act together, Kerry is up 47-42 over Dubya in the latest poll.

Even more interesting to me are the results from the "Red states" where Bush won four years ago: they're tied at 45% in those states. Since that subset includes unapproachably Republican strongholds like Utah and Kansas and the like (where Bush is surely 30 points up), a statistical tie means Bush must actually be behind in at least a few of what are supposed to be his "strong" states. If I recall correctly, there are about a dozen states that haven't gone Democratic for President since 1964, which, since Arizona voted for Clinton in '96, is the longest such streak in the country. It would certainly be something else if we whittled that number down by a few this fall.

It's dangerous to rely too much on historical trends when it comes to politics, but it looks like history is on Kerry's side: no president in the modern era (except maybe Truman, and that's stretching the definition of "modern") who trailed in the polls in May has ever won in November, and at least two incumbents who were ahead at this point in the game (Carter and Bush I) ended up losing. In other words, Bush would have to make up more ground than any president in at least the past 50 years has done in order to be elected this time. That would be a tall order for any politician, but for one as polarizing as Bush you've got to wonder if it's feasible at all.

Of course, the graveyard of political trivia is littered with such "unbeatable" precedents which were beaten in the past few elections. It used to be that any candidate who lost his party's New Hampshire primary but still won the nomination was a sure loser in November, but Clinton came in second there in '92 and still won. (Bush also lost the NH primary to John McCain in 2000, but I believe he lost the general too.) Throughout the post-Civil War era, no Democrat ever won the White House without carrying Texas - until Clinton did it twice. It was long said that no Democrat could win Ohio without carrying Cleveland by at least 100,000 votes, but Jimmy Carter squeaked by with 93,000 (and about 10,000 statewide) in 1976. Palo Alto county, Iowa, used to be known for backing the winner of every election since statehood in 1846, but it voted for Mondale in 1984. There was also a county in Oregon that had the same claim until 1992. Now there are none. I think football scores and skirt lengths have always been rumored to have some pull in the whole thing as well, but the details of those escape me at the moment.

But the "behind in May, behind in November" case is, in my opinion, quite different from all of those. Some are clearly nothing more than coincidences, others can be chalked up to marginal electorates in some places or partisan bases that have since shifted. The same can't be said for an incumbent's standing just six months out from the election. After three years and change, the voters know what they're getting and most of them know whether they like it or not. For those who don't, the only remaining question is whether or not the challenger is an acceptable alternative. The fact that Kerry is still coming out a bit ahead in that regard, even after all the venom hurled at him by the chickenhawks regarding his veteran status and the mostly manufactured charges of flip-flopping, can't be sitting too well with the White House just now.

I expect all manner of unprecedented nastiness from the GOPers to try to turn this tide, of course. It's hard to imagine how they could get any more disgusting than the "love Bush or support the terrorists" stuff they've been spewing on and off since 9/11, but I fully expect them to do it. Makes me glad I'm halfway around the world, really! But unless Kerry is really asleep at the wheel, I think the good guys have reason to cheer at last.