Gimme back my f*#%&g country, #$^&*!!

So, two more days to showtime. From afar, I can only offer what I've picked up from surfing the blogs and such:

1. Don't panic about Hawai'i. Those polls apparently are based only on results from Oahu, which is by far the most Republican of the islands (and even "most Republican" apparently means around 43% at best here). It's a bit like saying Kerry is in striking distance in Utah if he's almost even in Salt Lake City alone (which he probably isn't, if you're wondering). As for why the media hasn't bothered to report on the Hawai'i polls not really reflecting the whole state, well, what else would you expect from those guys at this point?

2. That last round of polls in general doesn't smell right to me. Kerry behind in Michigan and New Mexico but ahead in Colorado? Ahead in Ohio but only tied in Pennsylvania? I'm reminded of those last minute warnings in 2000 that Gore was slipping in California and would lose Minnesota by 10 points. The only difference this time is that there is bad news and good news for Kerry. I'm betting both will turn out to be baloney on Tuesday, although I would love to be wrong about Colorado.

3. The first two states to report are almost always Kentucky and Indiana. Their polls close a bit earlier than everyone else's for some reason - quite possibly so they can get their fifteen minutes of fame every four years. Kerry hasn't got a prayer in either one, so don't be alarmed when the networks call them for Bush. If Kerry comes within ten points in Indiana, then the rest of the evening should be lots of fun. If not, I know some schools over here that are hiring!
Both states have at least one competitive House race, involving a Democratic challenger and a Republican incumbent, so if the Dems win either one it's a great sign for the good guys. You can fully expect Judy Woodruff or Cokie Roberts to say it all means nothing for the big picture. They're wrong. There is also a bizarre situation with the Kentucky Senate race, in which the Democrat is probably a slight underdog. If he wins - especially if it's a big win - it could be a great night for you (and morning for me).
Oh, and if Kerry does somehow win Indiana or Kentucky, break out the champaigne. The suspense is over. (Not that I expect this. Far from it. I'm just sayin'.)

4. The first real signs of what is to come will probably be Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan. Of the three, Michigan was supposed to be Kerry's easiest win and Ohio his toughest, but the last polls say the opposite. I don't really buy those (see #2 above), but if he does lose MI it could be a long night. I must admit that I keep thinking of the Georgia Senate race in 2002, and how nobody I knew believed that those last few polls were right - but they were.
Think positive anyhow. And remember, no Republican has ever won without Ohio!

5. It's a beautiful, sunny afternoon in Longtan as I write this. If Kerry really is sinking, there are greener pastures out there for the next four years. But let's think positive.

6. A few of you might recognize the title of this post as a play on an inside joke with an old friend who is a rather vocal Bush supporter. Just a bit of irony to show the literary crowd I can cook.

Any Democrats living in any of the states I mentioned, just remember that you have two more days to make a difference (or even three if you count Election Day itself)!

See you Wednesday with Dave's Post Mortem Analysis.